Mine or Buy

v0.1

Honest math for Bitcoin treasury decisions. 4-year horizon, one halving cycle.

Your Business

Mining Setup

BTC Price Assumption

Power Law
Giovanni Santostasi's Power Law fit: price scales with (time since genesis)^5.8. Fifteen-plus years of BTC price action follow this trajectory closely. At current BTC age, this implies roughly 25-35% forward CAGR over 4 years, decaying slowly as the asset matures. The base-case scenario if BTC keeps doing what BTC has always done.

Network Difficulty

Baseline
Moderate forward growth consistent with steady-state periods between major hashrate events. The default assumption when no clear acceleration or slowdown signal is visible in recent retargets.
Next retarget: -11.07% — aligns with
4-year verdictMine wins sats
+0.124BTC+$48,579 post-tax

Over 4 years, on identical pre-tax dollars committed to each path.

Mine vs Buy, 4-year horizon

MetricMine + OpsLump + DCA
Units / initial outlay23.4 · $100,000$78,000
Tax shield refund (Sec 179)$38,889—
Total committed (4 yr)$321,441$321,441
Ongoing hosting / DCA per year$55,360$55,360
BTC stack2.96132.8377
Cost per coin$106,886$88,354
Terminal USD (pre-tax)$632,609$586,251
Terminal USD (post-liquidation)$567,725$519,145
Hardware resale (yr 4)$20,833—
§1245 recapture tax−$5,833—
LTCG on BTC gain−$59,051−$67,105

Active Assumptions

BTC price today$61,632
Modeled BTC price (Yr 4)$206,591
Network hashrate853 EH/s
Next retarget (~14d)-11.07%
Price modelPower Law
Difficulty growth15% → 8%
Data sourcecoingecko · mempool.space
Next halvingBlock 1,050,000 · est. Apr 2028 (22mo)
Simulation windowMay 2026 → May 2030

Reference

BTC hurdle (cash → BTC today)4.068
Mine hosting (4yr total)$221,441
Hosting rate$0.0780/kWh
ASICBitmain S21 XP
OpEx modeoperating_cash
Visit Compass Mining (US retail) →

Money Flow

Where every dollar goes across the 4-year horizon

Pre-tax capital flows left to right through a 4-year simulation. Year-4 exit taxes assume sale of BTC and hardware; operators who HODL avoid LTCG and §1245 until realization.

Mine + Ops
COMMITMENT4-YEAR GROWTHYEAR-4 (OPTIONAL) EXITASIC purchase (Yr 1)$100.0KHosting opex (Yr 1–4)$221.4KSec 179 tax refund$38.9KBTC mined (terminal)$611.8KHardware resale (Yr 4)$20.8KLTCG tax−$59.1K§1245 recapture−$5.8KWalk-away$567.7K
Lump + DCA
COMMITMENT4-YEAR GROWTHYEAR-4 (OPTIONAL) EXITIncome tax (Yr 1)−$22.0KBTC lump buy (Yr 1)$78.0KTax on ongoing (Yr 1–4)−$48.7KOngoing DCA (Yr 1–4)$172.7KBTC stack (terminal)$586.3KLTCG tax−$67.1KWalk-away$519.1K

Blue = productive capital / returns. Amber = tax outflows. Green = tax refund (Sec 179). Hover ribbons to isolate a flow.

Hosting Providers

Onramps

Built by direct Bitcoin mining and deep physical engineering experience. Engine is open-source and auditable. Go verify it.

This tool makes a 4-year projection comparing hosted Bitcoin mining against DCA, on equal pre-tax dollars committed. It is not financial advice. Your actual tax situation, hosting contract terms, and ASIC performance will differ. Mining is a physical operation with counterparty risk, uptime risk, and regulatory risk that this calc does not quantify. The engine source is public and the math is auditable — see methodology.